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A<sc>bstract</sc> A search is presented for the resonant production of a pair of standard model-like Higgs bosons using data from proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb⁻¹. The final state consists of two b quark-antiquark pairs. The search is conducted in the region of phase space where at least one of the pairs is highly Lorentz-boosted and is reconstructed as a single large-area jet. The other pair may be either similarly merged or resolved, the latter reconstructed using two b-tagged jets. The data are found to be consistent with standard model processes and are interpreted as 95% confidence level upper limits on the product of the cross sections and the branching fractions of the spin-0 radion and the spin-2 bulk graviton that arise in warped extradimensional models. The limits set are in the range 9.74–0.29 fb and 4.94–0.19 fb for a narrow radion and a graviton, respectively, with masses between 1 and 3 TeV. For a radion and for a bulk graviton with widths 10% of their masses, the limits are in the range 12.5–0.35 fb and 8.23–0.23 fb, respectively, for the same masses. These limits result in the exclusion of a narrow-width graviton with a mass below 1.2 TeV, and of narrow and 10%-width radions with masses below 2.6, and 2.9 TeV, respectively. 

Abstract Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.